Feeding the greed machine – The US Dollar is a modern colonizer

I am not a big online shopper or shopper in general for that matter, but you know when you buy something you don’t need, and you put it in the cupboard and never see it again… In my view that is the USD now.  The world doesn’t want the USD as a reserve currency, but they just can’t stop buying it because when the game stops, we all lose.  The longer the game is played the higher the stakes become.

Just want to give you some context before making my point

When a country issues currency effectively it is a free form of borrowing. Now after the US saved Europe in the world wars. While we do owe the US a thank you for that, the question is should everyone around the world still be thanking them? They made sure that everyone agreed commodities are priced in USD. It was a brilliant move, and it caused the US to go from a relatively poor country to an economic world power. Likely helped that most other major economies had literally been burned/bombed to the ground. Now as they say, with great power comes great responsibility.  What did the US do? 

Well, they consumed.  They grew to love things, and when money became an issue, they just printed more, because, hey guess what, the rest of the world needed USD to buy goods.  Over time it has become a culture of credit (individual and government alike).  Credit is essential in creating opportunity, in my view, as capital creates jobs and facilitates innovation. Hence the US has become technologically advanced and a hub for innovation. As they use the rest of the worlds cheap credit and money is cheap, so just keep investing, as you can always get more where that came from.  If you are less fortunate and can buy only one bottle of jam, what you do is buy the one you know is decent quality, because if you are wrong, you can’t buy another.  Whereas if you are wealthy, you might try something you don’t know, because if you don’t like it you can buy another one. That is where credit is a problem when you buy consumables, and you can just throw them away.  Credit then further facilitates this behaviour.  Especially when consumables are purchased on credit (clothes, food, vehicles etc.), as it causes a cycle of people believing they can just buy what they want, and there is no need to moderate, as credit is cheap and you can just print more money.  What is even worse is the US consumes in an unsustainable manner, being one of the higher emissions countries, but that’s another story.

Back to the point

As noted above, issue currency is free borrowings, and as the USD is used globally the US by issuing USD, is borrowing for free on a mass scale….However there is no such thing as a free lunch!  So, who is paying for lunch? We, the rest of the world, are paying for the US to borrow. Using the USD to buy commodities is making America rich, it is as simple as that.  Either countries don’t realise it because it is the status quo (seems unlikely, unless the countries economists aren’t really economists ), OR more likely the rich, bankers and finance individuals (as one of my lecturers used to say, “all bankers are evil”) don’t want it to change because when the system works, the rich stay rich.  Of course, the American’s don’t want to change and hence they threaten anyone that questions the USD’s dominance.  The question people should really ask is who paid the most? In my view, it is very clearly the global south.  Colonizers previously pillaged countries by taking their resources and shipping it home. Guess what, the world eventually acknowledged that is bad and some countries even paid back repatriations.

Using the USD to buy resources has the exact same effect. It is a modern form of colonization. As using the USD effectively take away a country’s ability to borrow for free by issue their own currency. The US use other countries’ assets to secure their own wealth back home. What this does is quietly keeps the poor countries poor and keeps the rich countries rich.  A couple of years ago I posted on how SA could solve its problems by just selling resources in ZAR. South Africa would become a rich nation with its wealth of resources. Would the world listen, no because who currently benefits wealthy countries.

However now the issue is the rich countries are starting to pay the price for the US’s greed. As they are no longer producing goods to sell in their own currency (well not competitively) and instead must import and buy goods in USD or from China (previously Russia)!   Mike Dolan explains part of the issue in his article “Intervention to halt dollar merely gives it legs” on Reuters 20 December 2024.

Guess what, the BRICS have already raised that flag with the idea of a BRICS currency. As with any movement, at first people say it is ridiculous, then they try squash it, and only after it is successful do people look back and go…Oh yes, women should have a right to vote, or of yes slavery is bad etc.  What I think is interesting is our friends in the UK and EU are soon going to come to that realization that they are buying their friends across the pond (the US) free lunch every day.

If the US was any other country, the USD would have been burned to the ground, with the overload of debt and anti-rest of the world policies.  Now the irony is they want to get greedier, as they realized that they can’t sustain their spending by borrowing more, so they need to sell more.  So now that they have starved the world of free/cheap capital, they want to start making the goods and selling it to us, to support their spending.

While MAGA stands for Make America Great Again, it should stand for, we coming for free dinner as the free lunch isn’t enough, so we going to make you poorer.  Either you have dinner ready or else…..

 

Buy the dip, or catching the knife? Or am I missing the boat.

Are you buying the dip, catching the falling knife or missing the boat? This is just some thoughts, on why it is different this time. One thing is for sure I would definitely not buy an index our days. In theory this is where you get the value of active management, and ideally one that can hedge. Note unit trust are allowed to hedge risk as well as hedge funds. I am not trying to give anyone advice, merely give a brief explanation or where things are, because in investing it is easy to get caught up in the here and now. The market can be an mysterious and at times emotional place, even as someone who has been investing for years I sometimes get a sense that I need to act, fortunately I have enough experience to not act impulsively. There is a saying worth knowing, “If you not sure, do nothing”. I don’t normally give market commentary for general public, but if you are interesting in investing I think it is worth having a read, just to get some ideas. I for the sake of brevity am just giving highlights.

The hardest thing is patience

In a volatile market, you have to make more decisions than normal, but the hardest decision is not making one at all. I think a lot of behavioral finance occurs because people get caught up in the moment and don't think about the big picture. It is easy to act quickly, but quite hard to restrain from being caught up in the moment. So here are some things to think about. 

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” Warren Buffett

What is Risk?

Understanding risk is probably one of the most important things to understand when making an investment decision.  In creating wealth it is fundamental to make as few mistakes as possible. Risk is the chance you make a mistake so if you want to make less mistakes, spend some time thinking about risk.

What is an Investment?

Someone ever said to you, you should buy more than 1 or 2 shares to diversify?  What happens if the market collapses, is your risk diversified if you have 10 or 20 shares?  How about you say well I have a house, and bonds and I have shares in my country?  What happens if your countries currency collapses (think Zimbabwe)?  Are you diversified.  The answer is no.

1% is 1% Percent More than Zero

"How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case." - Robert G. Allen

Something I have heard a million times and I think sadly costs people more than they understand is: "You need lots of money to make lots of money."  The issue with this, is how to you get to a big number if you are always waiting for a big number?

Just Because You Have Money Doesn't Mean You Need to Buy

When you decide to start something, it is exciting. With investing, you feel like you want to get involved, you want to buy, you want to learn.  I think in people's minds, 'buying' is the picture of investing.  This links with the questions people ask, "what shares should i buy?" "what shares are you buying?", you give them one or two suggestions, which they either like, or shrug off, then ask for more.

Believe in Yourself

The difference between a person with a finance or accounting degree with a CFA and your average portfolio manager,  is a lot of mistakes and time in the market.  Remember you can't buy time and experience.

So the first lesson I learnt is really quite a simple one. Unfortunately, I am obviously not too smart, because I learnt it at least twice.